Half of New Hampshire GOP voters will decide at the last minute

I enjoyed this look-ahead to the first genuine GOP election from Walter Shapiro writing for The New Republic, including the following helpful reminder of how unpredictable the New Hampshire primary is, even when compared to this most rocky of Republican roads:

The New Hamp­shire pri­ma­ry (my favorite event on the polit­i­cal cal­en­dar) has always been shaped by ded­i­cat­ed vot­ers and equal­ly ded­i­cat­ed late deciders (50 per­cent of 2008 GOP vot­ers made up their minds in the final week). With a Sat­ur­day night debate (spon­sored by ABC, Yahoo! News and WMUR, the dom­i­nant TV sta­tion in the state) and a Sun­day morn­ing face-off on “Meet the Press,” vot­ers will have many valid rea­sons to shift their alle­giances dur­ing the last-minute fren­zy before the Jan­u­ary 10 pri­ma­ry.

And equally, but for different reasons, this opinion piece from Slate editor Jacob Weisberg, writing in the FT (and thus behind a paywall) who dampens things a little by highlighting the vested interests of journalists (and, by extension bloggers, one would assume) in keeping the sense of uncertainty alive:

Journalists are most disappointed of all because Mr Romney gliding to victory is a weak story. Were the press any other industry, cynicism about its self-interest in promoting marginal challengers would prevail. Local television stations, many of them owned by giant media companies such as Fox, count on election-year revenue bumps from political advertising in important primary states.

We can expect, therefore, much amping up of a possibly ephemeral unpredictability, Weisberg says, and to hear more and more about ‘less and less likely alternatives to a Romney victory’.


One Response to Half of New Hampshire GOP voters will decide at the last minute

  1. […] my pre-New Hampshire post last week I noted commentary from Jacob Weisberg to the effect that journalists have a vested […]

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