The gift that just keeps giving

February 28, 2012

Democrats can barely contain their glee: there’s a very real chance that Mitt ‘My Wife Has Two Cadillacs‘ Romney will lose the backing of his home state Michigan today. Latest numbers from to-be-trusted Public Policy Polling show it’s too tight to call, but certainly loseable for Mitt. Back yard defeat looms!

In fact Democrats don’t have to contain anything. The Michigan primary isn’t restricted to registered Republicans, so Dems can get out there and vote for Mitt’s most serious contender yet – nonRom of the moment Rick Santorum – thus doing their bit to rent this Republican race wide, wide open and making it seriously difficult for the man most likely to beat Obama to gain the GOP nod.

And as the PPP results suggest, that’s exactly what many Michigan Democrats are planning to do: they’re lining up 47-10 for Rick. The final result will come down to whether Santorum can win by a big enough margin amongst election day voters to counteract Romney’s lead amongst the fifth of the electorate who’ve already voted, and voted 56-29 in his favour.

(Those who’ve seen it will recognise the inverse parallel with George Clooney thriller The Ides Of March, in which the frontrunner in a Democratic primary is threatened by Republican tactical voting. Those who haven’t seen it really shouldn’t bother: it’s a very, very dull film.)

The Michigan contest is fascinating both superficially – tight races are always fun – and substantively, because it’s a symptom of a much deeper shift within the Grand Old Party. The latter point is made eloquently by Christopher Caldwell, senior editor at conservative US magazine The Weekly Standard, in a piece for the FT published last Saturday (behind a paywall).

In it Caldwell argues that there’s zero chance that the populist wing of the GOP will ever reconcile itself to the ‘plutocratic’ wing represented by Romney: the populists see Mitt and his campaign as a fraud and a sham. The argument goes – and I’d love to know if there were data to back this up – that the Republican Party is undergoing a major transformation:

Republicans are in transition between being one kind of party and another. Yesterday’s Republicans were an upper-middle-class party (small-town lawyers, shop-owners, managers) and tomorrow’s are a lower-middle-class one (landscape gardeners, construction workers, truckers).

Santorum, naturally, is the champion of the working class, whereas Romney is – in the words of former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee – ‘the guy who fires you’. The Party is torn between a ‘Rotary Club wing’ and a ‘Burger King wing’. Republicans will lose as a result, thinks Caldwell, and the moderate RINOs will switch to the Democratic Party in 2016 and beyond. Now let’s not get ahead of ourselves here… but isn’t this fun?!


Santorum: another nonRom, or something more?

February 17, 2012

We are in the middle of The February Lull… in the once frenetic and soon-to-be manic once more Republican Party primary campaign, of course.

Until Arizona and Michigan on 28th Feb, and Super Tuesday thereafter, the only excitement for this Wannabe Yank comes from the possibility of changing results past, a la Iowa, and indeed it seems Romney’s narrow win in Maine may – or of course may not – be under threat as a recount takes place.

In the meantime, I enjoyed this opinion piece in the Washington Post today by Michael Gerson, who suggests that whilst Santorum’s surge is in line with that of previous nonRoms, there are good reasons to think it’s a surge that could become a swell. Santorum is Romney’s most serious challenger to date, thinks Gerson, because:

Perry did not possess presidential-level skills. Cain lacked any apparent qualification for high office. Gingrich managed to systematically confirm every doubt about his style and stability.

But not only is Santorum less bad than the other lot, he may actually be pretty good:

Santorum, in contrast, has shown the ability to learn. While his initial debate performances were peevish and unappealing, he has grown more confident and likable over time. He has effectively prosecuted Romney’s public record while avoiding anger or overreach. (He pointedly refused, for example, to attack Romney’s business achievements and personal wealth.)

And of course last but not least, Santorum is a nonRom:

The former Pennsylvania senator possesses strengths that neatly fit some of Romney’s weaknesses. Santorum combines a deeply held social conservatism with an authentic blue-collar appeal. Romney has trouble competing in either category.

But not mad, familiar or chaotic enough to be a threat to the GOP establishment, as Gingrich was:

While Santorum is very conservative, he avoids being a conservative caricature. He was one of the Senate’s main advocates of global health programs and a champion of faith-based anti-poverty efforts.

The conclusion Gerson finishes with is that Romney’s campaign may, as it has with previous nonRoms, pinpoint Santorum’s weak spots and pound him into submission, but this leaves voters without a sense of what Mitt actually stands for. Romney’s campaign ‘remains short on aspiration’ and is ‘…a campaign – but not a cause’.

Hardcore Republicans: not to be underestimated

February 7, 2012

My very dear friend and, until recently, my BlogFather, (I can’t complete this sentence without using the Harry Endfieldism ‘…and I’m happy to say my lover’) Rich Watts is convinced – it seems – that the race to become the Republican Party nominee for the presidency is a foregone conclusion.

I say ‘it seems’ because I’ve yet to have the pleasure of hearing Rich’s arguments in favour of this position (a Mitt Romney win, obviously) laid out in any detail by the man himself – all I’ve seen are knowing mutterings on Twitter. I very much hope I can entice him to use the comment box or, who knows, even pen a post.

If Rich elects to do so, he will have plenty of evidence to choose from. Across-the-board victories for Mitt in Florida and Nevada, for instance, or new national polling data which shows Romney with a substantial lead amongst GOP voters over the ragtag rest. So there’s every reason for thinking Rich is right and it will be Mitt.

One thing I would wish Rich to take account of, however, and one thing which I have a sneaking suspicion he may be underestimating is how batshit crazy very many Republican voters are.

As evidence – compelling evidence, I think you’ll agree – I point you towards the fact that Rick Santorum has a very decent chance of winning two out of the three votes today (in Missouri and Minnesota) and coming second in Colorado. This is based on latest data from Public Policy Polling, an agency with a good track record to date of accurate predictions.

Rick Santorum. Christianist Rick, who would ask that his daughter see a baby conceived as a result of rape as a gift from God, thinks homosexuality can be compared with bestiality, and that climate change and evolution are junk science (you’ll remember The Guardian’s widely retweeted beginner’s guide).

The reason Romney probably will be the nominee is not because there are a sufficient number of sensible Republicans to outweigh the mad ones (moderate rightwingers do exist, so I’m told) but because Santorum is just one of three loony candidates remaining in the race. Should the field narrow further, Rich will be seriously contemplating eating his hat.

The show’s not over till Santorum swings?

February 2, 2012

So Romney thumped Gingrich in Florida as much if not more than Newt walloped Mitt in South Carolina.

Most commentators seem to share the view espoused by Ezra Klein in the Post that the deal is done, with the race turning into a GOP primary campaign much like 2008, when Republicans also rallied round someone they didn’t particularly like.

It’s hard to know whether those who demur are – as I often find myself – just hoping for prolonged excitement in a race that’s probably sewn up.

Perhaps the most obvious and last remaining opportunity for Gingrich is if Santorum drops out and his ‘natural’ voters (an oxymoron there?) switch to the Speaker in droves. But I’m not sure this would be a one-to-one translation.

Further high profile endorsements – Donald Trump is apparently going to swing in behind Newt today – may help, but it’s hard to escape the feeling that a window somewhere is rapidly closing.

For a (very) detailed analysis of five possible scenarios for the rest of the campaign, including extensive evidence and historical precedent, Nate Silver has it covered.

The bit from this piece that made me chuckle was when evaluating scenario two Nate says ‘Romney would only be in danger if he committed some game-changing gaffe’. Like saying he’s not bothered about very poor people, for instance?

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