The show’s not over till Santorum swings?

So Romney thumped Gingrich in Florida as much if not more than Newt walloped Mitt in South Carolina.

Most commentators seem to share the view espoused by Ezra Klein in the Post that the deal is done, with the race turning into a GOP primary campaign much like 2008, when Republicans also rallied round someone they didn’t particularly like.

It’s hard to know whether those who demur are – as I often find myself – just hoping for prolonged excitement in a race that’s probably sewn up.

Perhaps the most obvious and last remaining opportunity for Gingrich is if Santorum drops out and his ‘natural’ voters (an oxymoron there?) switch to the Speaker in droves. But I’m not sure this would be a one-to-one translation.

Further high profile endorsements – Donald Trump is apparently going to swing in behind Newt today – may help, but it’s hard to escape the feeling that a window somewhere is rapidly closing.

For a (very) detailed analysis of five possible scenarios for the rest of the campaign, including extensive evidence and historical precedent, Nate Silver has it covered.

The bit from this piece that made me chuckle was when evaluating scenario two Nate says ‘Romney would only be in danger if he committed some game-changing gaffe’. Like saying he’s not bothered about very poor people, for instance?

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